The U.S. Dollar Is About To Take A Dump
U.S. policy makers are flooding the world with an extra $8.5 trillion through 23 different plans designed to bail out the financial system and pump up the economy. The decline shows that the increased supply of money may be overwhelming investors just as the government steps up debt sales, the trade and budget deficits grow and de-leveraging by investors slows. What dose this mean for you and me, it can mean higher gas prices this summer and traveling abroad is going up.
Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., BNP Paribas SA and Bank of America Corp. predict further weakness. Last week was the first time in almost a month that consensus estimates for the dollar against the euro through 2009 fell, according to the median forecast of 47 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Goldman Sachs says the dollar may weaken to $1.45 per euro by the end of next year. Up until Dec. 11, the firm forecast that it would end 2009 at $1.30. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey is for the currency to finish next year at $1.25.
Dollar bulls say it’s a mistake to bet against the currency now because Treasury yields are falling to record lows even as the government prepares to sell more than $1 trillion of debt, a sign there’s no end in sight to demand for the safest U.S. assets. They also say the yen, which typically rallies as risky assets decline, is appreciating.
The government and the Fed cannot continue to talk about trillions of dollars of financing and expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet without the dollar going south. So you investor that are putting all your money in the dollar, the bubble is about to burst soon.
By John Gerena
U.S. policy makers are flooding the world with an extra $8.5 trillion through 23 different plans designed to bail out the financial system and pump up the economy. The decline shows that the increased supply of money may be overwhelming investors just as the government steps up debt sales, the trade and budget deficits grow and de-leveraging by investors slows. What dose this mean for you and me, it can mean higher gas prices this summer and traveling abroad is going up.
Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., BNP Paribas SA and Bank of America Corp. predict further weakness. Last week was the first time in almost a month that consensus estimates for the dollar against the euro through 2009 fell, according to the median forecast of 47 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Goldman Sachs says the dollar may weaken to $1.45 per euro by the end of next year. Up until Dec. 11, the firm forecast that it would end 2009 at $1.30. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey is for the currency to finish next year at $1.25.
Dollar bulls say it’s a mistake to bet against the currency now because Treasury yields are falling to record lows even as the government prepares to sell more than $1 trillion of debt, a sign there’s no end in sight to demand for the safest U.S. assets. They also say the yen, which typically rallies as risky assets decline, is appreciating.
The government and the Fed cannot continue to talk about trillions of dollars of financing and expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet without the dollar going south. So you investor that are putting all your money in the dollar, the bubble is about to burst soon.
By John Gerena
No comments:
Post a Comment